——In-depth Analysis of the Industrial Chain Reconstruction and Wealth Opportunities under the China-US Game
I. Introduction: When the Logic of Businessmen Meets National Strategy
In April 2025, a dramatic turning point occurred in the history of global trade: the United States imposed a 125% “reciprocal tariff” on China, and China responded by simultaneously adjusting the tax rate on US goods exported to China to 125%. This tariff game, referred to by foreign media as an “economic nuclear war”, not only caused the Dow Jones Industrial Average to lose $4.2 trillion in market value within a single week, but also pushed the global industrial chain to the “decoupling critical point”. Trump’s businessman-style decision-making has clashed fiercely with China’s dual-driven strategy of “science and technology + domestic demand”, and a contest concerning the national fortune for the next 30 years has already kicked off.
In April 2025, a dramatic turning point occurred in the history of global trade: the United States imposed a 125% “reciprocal tariff” on China, and China responded by simultaneously adjusting the tax rate on US goods exported to China to 125%. This tariff game, referred to by foreign media as an “economic nuclear war”, not only caused the Dow Jones Industrial Average to lose $4.2 trillion in market value within a single week, but also pushed the global industrial chain to the “decoupling critical point”. Trump’s businessman-style decision-making has clashed fiercely with China’s dual-driven strategy of “science and technology + domestic demand”, and a contest concerning the national fortune for the next 30 years has already kicked off.
II. The Underlying Logic of the Tariff Storm: From “Zero-Sum Game” to “Clash of Civilizations”
The Dilemma of the United States: Stagflation, Recession and the Backlash of Hegemony
The Dilemma of the United States: Stagflation, Recession and the Backlash of Hegemony
- Economic Costs: The core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) price index in the United States has exceeded 5%, and the average monthly expenditure of low- and middle-income families has increased by $200. Enterprises such as Ford and Tesla have suffered losses of over $1 billion due to soaring costs.
- Political Paradox: Trump tried to please voters through tariffs, but he encountered a collapse in the support rate of 74% of his core voters and a joint protest from 30 major giants.
- Dollar Crisis: The daily trading volume of the Cross-Border Interbank Payment System (CIPS) in China has exceeded 2.4 trillion yuan. Many countries are accelerating the promotion of local currency settlement, and the hegemony of the US dollar is facing the biggest challenge in 50 years.
China’s Solution: The Sword of Science and Technology and the Resilience of the System - Technological Breakthrough: In 2025, China’s self-sufficiency rate of chips reaches 70%, and the global share of new energy vehicles is 65%. The export control of rare earths directly hits the technological lifeline of the United States.
- Domestic Demand Revolution: A consumption track worth $3 trillion has exploded. By 2030, new business forms such as the “elderly economy” and “new national trend IP” are expected to contribute 30% of the consumption increment.
- Rule Reconstruction: China has joined hands with 128 countries to promote multilateral trade reform and implemented the “Three-Zero Policy” (zero tariffs, zero access restrictions, and zero industrial subsidies) for non-US countries.
III. Industrial Chain Reconstruction: Who is Rewriting the Global Wealth Map?
The Acceleration of “De-Americanization” of the Supply Chain
The Acceleration of “De-Americanization” of the Supply Chain
- Migration of Manufacturing: German car companies have cut exports to the United States, and Toyota of Japan has postponed building factories in the United States. Mexico has become the largest trading partner of the United States, but 60% of its intermediate goods come from Chinese enterprises.
- Regional Integration: Under the framework of the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), the proportion of intra-Asian trade has exceeded 60%, and the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) has replaced the European Union as China’s largest trading partner.
The Precise Strike of China’s “Tariff Toolbox” - In the Technological Field: Imposing tariffs on semiconductors has forced independent substitution, and the production cost of domestic 14nm chips has decreased by 40%.
- In the Livelihood Field: Zero tariffs have been implemented on medical products such as raw materials for anti-cancer drugs and viral vectors for CAR-T therapy, reducing the burden on the public.
- In the Green Transformation: The tariffs on ethane and raw materials for recycled copper and aluminum have been reduced, promoting cost reduction and efficiency improvement in the new energy industry.
IV. The Code for Wealth: Seeking Certainty in the Smoke of Tariffs
The New Pattern of Safe-Haven Assets
The New Pattern of Safe-Haven Assets
- Gold/Yen: Global capital has flowed into safe-haven assets, and the exchange rate of the Japanese yen against the US dollar has reached a 20-year high.
- Opportunities in the A-share Market: Morgan Stanley has upgraded the rating of China’s stock market, and foreign capital is accelerating its withdrawal from the US stock market and turning to the “valuation depression”.
The Outbreak Points of Trillion-Dollar Tracks - New Energy Energy Storage: The import tariffs on spodumene have been optimized, and the cost of the energy storage system is expected to decrease by another 15%.
- AI in Healthcare: The tariffs on core components of surgical robots have been reduced, and the market size is expected to reach 500 billion yuan by 2030.
- Quantum Communication: Special funds from national laboratories have been tilted, and the commercialization of quantum key distribution technology has been accelerated.
The Dividends of Urban Upgrading - Smart Cities: The pilot projects of the low-altitude economy (drone logistics) have been expanded to 50 cities, and the investment in supporting infrastructure exceeds one trillion yuan.
- County Economy: Cross-border e-commerce comprehensive pilot zones cover 80% of prefecture-level cities, and tariff facilitation policies boost the “products made in counties” to go global.
V. Conclusion: The Collapse of the Old Order and the Rise of a New Civilization
The tariff war in 2025 is just like a “stress test” of the global economic system. While Trump is roaring on “Air Force One”, China is building a countermeasure Great Wall with the “Unreliable Entities List” and independent innovation in science and technology. History will prove that governing a country with business thinking will ultimately be defeated by the long-termism centered on the people.
The tariff war in 2025 is just like a “stress test” of the global economic system. While Trump is roaring on “Air Force One”, China is building a countermeasure Great Wall with the “Unreliable Entities List” and independent innovation in science and technology. History will prove that governing a country with business thinking will ultimately be defeated by the long-termism centered on the people.
Please note that the content in this article contains some assumptions and speculations. You can adjust and supplement it according to the actual situation. If you have any other questions, feel free to let me know.
